Ramalan & Unjuran PRN Johor 2026

ILHAM Centre field study 26 Jun-9 Jul 2026: 1,250 face-to-face respondents across all 56 DUN (margin of error 2.77%), plus 9 focus-group discussions (76 informants) and 18 in-depth interviews, with statistical analysis of 2022 PRN/PRU scoresheets. Projects BN on track to EXCEED a two-thirds majority: BN leading in 39 seats, PH 9, and 8 seats highly competitive (toss-up). Key drivers: the state-election 'setting' favours BN incumbency; MB Onn Hafiz popularity 79% vs PM Anwar 40%; PAS-Bersatu split weakened PN, shifting tactical PAS support to BN; PH hurt by low Chinese-voter enthusiasm (needs >=65% Chinese turnout to hold urban/semi-urban seats); ~17% still undecided (mostly young 'late deciders'); MUDA and Bersama seen as vote-splitters ('kacau daun').

Dikompilasi: 2026-07-03

PRN Johor: Kajian BN Mendahului Sokongan 36%, PH 26%, PN 15% (2 Jul 2026). Survey of 1,303 Johor voters, 15-29 Jun 2026, weighted by DOSM demographics, 'Likely Voter Model'. BN leads on support share; 14 seats rated very marginal, 17 seats uncertain; 31% of voters undecided/soft (7% refused, 2% not decided).

Dikompilasi: 2026-07-03

PRN Johor 2026: BN Masih Pilihan, PN Berpeluang Tambah Kerusi (1 Jun 2026). Three scenarios: (1) BN keeps a large majority, holding 35+ seats; (2) PN grows to 10-15 seats while BN still forms govt; (3) a protest wave costs BN its two-thirds majority but it still leads Johor. PN needs +26 seats (min 29) to take over — mathematically very hard.

Dikompilasi: 2026-07-03

PRN Johor: BN, PH dan PN dijangka bertembung di 33 kerusi (Jun 2026). Straight/multi-cornered fights: BN, PH and PN expected to clash directly in 33 of 56 seats; PH and BN both contesting all 56 solo raises three-cornered-fight risk that splits the opposition vote and favours BN.

Dikompilasi: 2026-07-03

Merdeka Center's published June 2026 survey (fieldwork 12 Mar-9 Apr 2026, n=1,209 nationwide) is a NATIONAL LEADERSHIP-APPROVAL poll, not a Johor seat forecast. PM Anwar Ibrahim tops leadership approval at 52% (45% among Malays, 59% among non-Malays); Anwar said the survey 'spurs us to work harder' ahead of the Johor and Negeri Sembilan polls. Merdeka Center did NOT publish a public seat-by-seat Johor projection in this release. Figures below are approval %, NOT coalition vote/seat shares.

Dikompilasi: 2026-07-03

'Johor Pasca PRU15: Tiada Lagi Kubu Kebal, Persaingan Semakin Terbuka' (29 Jun 2026, by Mohd Firdaus Mohammad). A structural/trend analysis rather than a seat count. Argues Johor is no longer a BN fortress: BN overall support fell from ~54% (GE11) to 22% (GE15), PH rose to 31%, PN (PAS-Bersatu) 20% (as share of all registered voters). Turnout is decisive — PRN 2022 turnout was only 55.5% vs ~84.5% at GE14, which flattered BN. By race (GE15 DUN-level): Malays BN 54% / PN 32% / PH 10%; Chinese PH 60% / BN 24% / PN 10%; Indians PH 55% / BN 20% / PN 17%. Only 2 DUNs (Skudai, Bentayan, both PH) still qualify as 'safe' (>65%). Conclusion: most Johor seats are now open/competitive and turnout-sensitive — no explicit BN/PH/PN seat forecast given.

Dikompilasi: 2026-07-03

'Opinion: Projecting the Johor state election results' (3 Jul 2026). Three modelled scenarios based on GE15 vote shares. Pro-BN (his most likely, >60% chance after 1 week of campaigning): BN 53, PH 3, PN 0. Pro-PN (<10% chance, less likely after PAS-Bersatu split): PN 25, BN 21, PH 10 (BN+PN govt). Pro-PH: BN 39, PH 14, PN 3. Caveats: modelled before nomination day, ignores individual-candidate dynamics, PAS-Bersatu breakdown, and BERSAMA's impact on PH.

Dikompilasi: 2026-07-03

2026 Johor state election (Wikipedia) — full 56-seat contest table with incumbents and contesting parties per DUN. 'Win' below = predicted HOLD by 2022 incumbent coalition under the baseline 'BN retains majority' scenario; these are derived leans, not published seat calls. Votes = 0 (no vote-level forecast exists).

Dikompilasi: 2026-07-03

Ramalan SEBEKAS berdasarkan senarai penamaan calon PRN Johor 2026 dan keputusan PRN-15 (2022). Model menggabungkan sokongan PKR/DAP/AMANAH/MUDA/PH sebagai PH (PRN-15), mengambil kira perpecahan MUDA (5%) dan BERSAMA (20%) dari PH, penyatuan PEJUANG ke PN, dan pengagihan semula sokongan PN/PEJUANG kepada BN di kerusi tanpa pertandingan PN.

Dikompilasi: 2026-07-03